Joe Issa prediction coming to pass?

Executive Chairman of Cool Corp, Joe Issa, May turn out to be right when he predicted that Summer 2015 would be the worst in 20 years for Jamaica’s former cruise ship capital, Ocho Rios.

Issa made the prediction shortly after the close of Summer 2014 on news that Carnival Cruise Lines out of Miami, US would be pulling its mega liners out of Ocho Rios Port, to Royal Caribbean’s Falmouth Port in Summer 2015.

Reacting to the news at The Gleaner Editors’ Forum at the Ocho Rios Mystic Ridge attraction on November 26, 2014 for stakeholders to respond to the situation Issa, who is arguably Jamaica’s foremost tourism expert and an advocate for improvements to the Ocho Rios Port, was devastated.

Issa’s comments were carried in The Gleaner newspaper’s lead story by Janet Silvera on December 1, 2014 at http://jamaica-gleaner.com/gleaner/20141201/lead/lead1.html, [The Gleaner – Oasis at   Ocho Rios Port].

“Next summer will be the worst in 20 years,” Issa said, noting that “15 to 20 years ago Ocho Rios boasted in excess of 800,000 cruise ship passengers annually but those numbers have dropped to 400,000.” This number, which related to 2013, represented approximately 32 per cent of the total annual arrival and a decline of 4.2 per cent relative to the previous year.

Adding that those numbers would be reduced significantly with one ship calling sporadically in summer 2015, which accounts for six months of the year Issa, who successfully run his father’s SuperClubs chain of all-inclusive resorts, said the situation needed to be addressed immediately.

Summer business starts about the end of April and closes between the end of October and early November.

But half way into Summer 2015, May – July, there have been a total of 66 ship calls of which 13 or 20% was for Ocho Rios and 34 or 52% for Falmouth. In terms of number of passengers for the same three months in 2015, this amount to a total of 277,019. Of this number 48,697 or 18% was for Ocho Rios and 152,000 or 55% for Falmouth.

When compared to 2014, there were 59 ship calls or seven less for the same three months, with 14 calls or 24% for Ocho Rios and 33 calls or 56% for Falmouth. In terms of number of passengers there were 260,300 in total for the three months May to July. Of this amount, 49,200 or 19% was for Ocho Rios and 159,100 or 61% for Falmouth.

The three months August – October 2014, saw 68 ships arriving, of which 18 or 26% was for Ocho Rios while 37 or 54% was for Falmouth. In terms of passengers, a total of 268,700 arrived during the same period, of which 57,900 or 22% was for Ocho Rios and 158,600 or 59% for Falmouth.

This means that for Summer 2014, there were 260,300 passengers for the first three months and 268,700 for the last three months, totaling 529,000. But for the first three months in 2015, there have been 277,019 requiring 251,981 just to equal the arrivals for Summer 2014. But with arrivals for the last three months totaling 268,700, it’s a close call.

However, in terms of Ocho Rios, Summer 2014 yielded 49,200 passengers or 19% of the total in May – July, and 57,900 or 22% in August – October, totaling 107,100. Compared with Summer 2015, May – July have brought in 48,697 or 18% but will require 58,403 in August – October to equal Summer 2014, whereas the best it has yielded was 57,900 which is not likely, as a reduction in ship calls is expected consequent upon the anticipated reduction in not just the number of ships but also the size of the ships as the mega liners have been moved to Falmouth.